Fantasy NWSL Round 20 “Differential” Options

Welcome to Round 20 (the final round) of Fantasy NWSL! As usual, we are here to answer all of your team selection questions through the magic of statistics. This week, since it’s the last week of the FNWSL season, we are going to take a look at differential options – so if you’re in first place in your league, congratulations! It means you don’t have to read this article, but feel free to use that time to help us brainstorm the singular versions of Current, Reign, and Racing. Tweet any and all ideas at @ShePlaysNWSL or @MansersAnswers. 

For those of you that aren’t in first place (like me), you may want to transfer in some differential players for the final round of the season. While FNWSL superstars like Sophia Smith and Alex Morgan may rack up the points this week, they won’t help you too much if most (or all) of the teams above you have them too. While you can’t see who is on other teams, you can specifically choose some players that are less commonly selected in FNWSL but still have the potential to score big points. That way, if (when) they do, you could take a big jump up the leaderboard. 

The key stat this week is TSB%, or Team Selected By Percentage – the percentage of all FNWSL teams on which a player appears. For context, here were the top five TSB% in Round 19: 

Round 20 Match Overview:

Each team plays a single game this week. The schedule is bookended by two games that will decide sixth place and the final playoff spot: North Carolina and San Diego kick off the weekend slate Friday evening at the brand new Snapdragon Stadium, and Angel City visits Chicago to close out the 2022 regular season on Sunday evening (check out Janet’s article https://blog.sheplays.com.au/playoff-picture-will-fantasy-points-predict-an-outcome/ for an in-depth preview of these matches).

All other teams play on Saturday – I won’t go into all the possible permutations, but each team in the top 8 has something to play for as the regular season concludes. 

Differential Selections:

Phallon Tullis-Joyce is still by far the most popular goalkeeper in FNWSL (with good reason), but if you have the budget flexibility, consider Kansas City’s Adrianna Franch, who currently has a TSB of 5.05%. The Current still have a chance to win the Shield or at least a first round bye. They are visiting Louisville this week, who are tied with Orlando for the second-fewest goals scored and give Franch a good chance to log a clean sheet. 

You can still get a player from OL Reign’s league-best defense as a differential option – center back Sam Hiatt. She has a TSB of only 9%, and the Reign are home against one of the league’s lower scoring sides (Orlando) this week. Chicago’s Amanda Kowalski was only on 1.55% of teams last week, and she should be back in the starting lineup this week against Angel City with the potential to add to her season total of three goals. 

You probably want a Thorn or two on your team this week, as Portland is looking to lock up the Shield in New Jersey this week – which means the highest-scoring team is playing against the team that has conceded the most goals this season. Sophia Smith (27.83 TSB%), Sam Coffey (21.75%), and Morgan Weaver (12.88%) are great options as always, but Hina Sugita is likely the best differential option with.a TSB of 6.21%. It’s a similar situation for San Diego, who are hosting North Carolina in a match with massive stakes for both teams – who also just happen to be two of the highest-scoring sides in the NWSL. Alex Morgan (20.71%) and Taylor Korniek (34.63%) will likely start for many FNSWL teams, so take a look at Emily van Egmond (3.50%). The Aussie center mid has been racking up points on both sides of the ball. 

Your forward selections could provide the biggest opportunity for differential points this week. North Carolina #9 Kerolin finally went goalless last week, but is still somehow only on 7.18% of FNWSL teams. With five goals and two assists over her last four games, she’s a great bet to find the back of the net in the aforementioned potential shootout in San Diego. Rookie left winger Jaedyn Shaw will also be in that match and has scored three goals for the Wave in her first five NWSL games. At a TSB of just 2.07%, she could be the longshot that wins you your league! 

Differential Captains:

We see a wide variety of captains in FNWSL each week, and pretty much anyone other than Alex Morgan or Sophia Smith could prove to be a good differential option in Round 20. Portland will likely light up the scoreboard this week, so two good longshot captain options are Sam Coffey and Morgan Weaver, who are both on many FNWSL teams but don’t generally get the armband (captained last week by only 0.06% and 0.19% of teams respectively). If you do go with Coffey, keep an eye on her availability after she left last week’s game with an injury. San Diego’s Taylor Korniek generally is only captained by about 1% of teams despite averaging double-digit points per week. Kansas City’s Lo’eau LaBonta, despite a very strong second half, usually only gets the armband from 0.5% or so of FNWSL teams and has a good matchup in Louisville to close the season as KC chases the Shield. Spirit striker Ashley Hatch has also had a very strong second half and is only captained by 1.5-2% of FNWSL teams. With Houston pursuing home field advantage and goal difference tie breakers, we could see a wide open game in Washington this weekend with plenty of opportunities for Hatch.

UPDATE: As of Friday, 9/30, Taylor Korniek is listed as OUT on the NWSL availability report: https://www.nwslsoccer.com/availability-report

Thank you so much to everyone who played ShePlaysNWSL this season… good luck in Round 20, and be sure to keep the fun going with ShePlaysWSL – in fact, you can join the ShePlays NWSL admins in a WSL mini-league with code ShePlaysNWSL! See you next year!