Well, just when we had started processing Alex Morgan’s retirement(s), now we have to do the same for two other NWSL legends: Kelley O’Hara and Christine Sinclair. Thank you Kelley and Christine for amazing careers – we will miss you both!
In other news, we are also looking at the sunset of the 2024 FNWSL season. There are only four rounds left, and don’t forget this also means that you only have four free transfers left. To maximize each of those valuable transfers, you’ll want to look holistically at the remaining schedule and take all four matches into consideration for each player. Last week, we looked at the remaining schedule and FBRef xGA data, and analyzed which teams have the most favorable schedule for scoring goals through the end of the regular season. Three of the four teams we highlighted in that article (San Diego, Utah, and Washington) all scored in Round 20 (and the fourth, Portland, was missing Sophia Smith).
Today, let’s flip the script and take a look at the xG of each team’s remaining opponents. This way, we can identify which DFs and GKs may have the best chance to log clean sheets over the final four rounds of FNWSL.
Round 22 kicks off Friday evening with a Central Time derby (Houston hosting Chicago) at 8/7c, followed by a West Coast clash between Angel City and Seattle!
Same disclaimers as last week:
- We know how competitive and unpredictable the NWSL is, especially after all of the summer transfers (which do impact expectations in the second half of the season!). This xGA data is calculated on a season-long basis, so it doesn’t necessarily fully account for recent team changes and could be affected by some primacy bias.
- This data does take into account home vs. away performance and is calculated based on whether the opponent is the home team or the away team.
And here’s the graph:
While Kansas City’s opponents have the fewest xG, it’s a pretty minimal difference between the first nine teams. That means that there likely isn’t a huge difference between the overall chances of strong defensive performances and clean sheets for each of those nine teams. The remaining five teams (Washington, Chicago, and especially Louisville, Portland, and San Diego) have matches remaining against strong offensive teams, so there may be fewer clean sheets available for them through the end of the season.
So what does this mean for FNWSL?
- San Diego has two of the most popular players in FNWSL on defense: Naomi Girma and Kailen Sheridan. And according to this data, the Wave may struggle to rack up defensive points during the run-in. However, there is some good news! The Wave are the only team that still has to pay a visit to Kansas City this season, and a major reason for San Diego’s place on this list is the very high home xG of the Current. If you currently have Girma or Sheridan, I wouldn’t necessarily transfer either of them out, but maybe make sure you have a backup plan in place for the game vs. Kansas City.
- Portland’s schedule is tough as well, and I probably wouldn’t invest too much money in Thorns DFs for the next few weeks. One caveat though: In the absence of Sophia Smith, Marie Muller has pushed up to more of a wing back position in a new look formation for Portland. She’s logged a full 90 minutes in both games, racking up the defensive stats and also contributing up front – she’ll likely continue to rake in fantasy points regardless of opponent!
- If you haven’t already, you should probably roster at least one of the starting Carolina DFs, as they appear to have a favorable schedule for defending and all have significant involvement in the Courage attack. I personally start Malia Berkely because of her lower cost and involvement in set pieces, but you can’t really go wrong with any of them!
Are you making any changes to your back line for the final few rounds? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!