Does anyone remember the scene in Sherlock when Moriarty “returns” from the dead, hacks into everything, and asks “Did you miss me?”
I don’t know about you, but that’s how I felt when our collective FNWSL nemesis Own Goal returned with a vengeance in Round 4. We were robbed of both clean sheets and goals in one fell swoop (two fell swoops in this case). The good news is that I’m here to be your Watson (or at least Lestrade) for FNWSL Round 5.
Now my personal favorite highlight of this Round was Tatumn Milazzo winning NWSL Save of the Week, but for those of you who have other priorities, let’s dive into Round 4!
What’s going on in Portland?
One unexpected development through the early weeks of the NWSL season has been the slow start of the Portland Thorns. Portland, who hasn’t finished lower than third in the table since 2015, has only secured one point through four matches. From a fantasy perspective, this has created some tough decisions for FNWSL managers, especially those who have budgeted for premium players like Sophia Smith and Sam Coffey.
I won’t get too deep into the tactical analysis of what is different about the Thorns this year, but it’s possible that Portland is still adjusting to the absence of Bella Bixby and rotation in their backline – as they are tied with Houston for most goals conceded (ten) through four rounds. Their expected goals against (xGA) is only 4.7 according to FBref, but we’re currently not seeing much fantasy output from Portland at DF and GK.
However, Portland is fifth in the NWSL in goals scored and fourth in expected goals (xG). While those ranks may not match up to the Thorns’ recent standards, offensive production does not really seem to be the big issue. Admittedly, a middling goalscoring team may not justify $900k of your fantasy budget (the combined cost of Smith and Coffey), but there’s no need to remove all Portland attackers from your fantasy team.
Sophia Smith’s individual goalscoring ability transcends the overall performance of her team, and while I wouldn’t blame you for giving the armband to another player on occasion, Smith should be in your XI each week. Morgan Weaver and Coffey are probably not returning enough fantasy value at the moment to justify their respective costs, but both of them have very strong track records and I wouldn’t be in a hurry to transfer either one out (especially in Coffey’s case, considering the relative lack of high-scoring MFs in FNWSL). Janine Beckie has very high upside but has not made the scoresheet since her brace in Round 1, so with the plethora of low-cost, high-value FWs in FNWSL, she’s probably more of a differential option for now.
Who are the must-have players for FNWSL?
It’s been a super exciting start to the FNWSL season, with a plethora of players racking up points at FW and DF and a very competitive list of GKs. There are so many great options for your team that it’s difficult to identify very many players as “must-haves,” but that’s what I’m going to attempt to do it anyway.
The key is at midfield, where there are far fewer consistently high-scoring fantasy players. The two that really stand out are Croix Bethune ($75k) and Vanessa DiBernardo ($150k), who are the two highest-scoring fantasy MFs and are by far the highest value at that position. We’ve talked about DiBernardo a couple of times already, and her standalone value is supercharged by Kansas City’s elite forward pairing of Bia Zaneratto and Temwa Chawinga (on that note, keep an eye on any updates to Chawinga’s status this week, as she did suffer an injury in Round 4).
Bethune seems to be the primary fantasy beneficiary of Ashley Sanchez’s departure from Washington and is trailing only Trinity Rodman in shot creations and goal creations for the Spirit. A $75k midfielder that lines up with Rodman and Ashley Hatch, and plays almost every minute? That’s a must-have player for me.
What formation should you be using?
Like we talked about in the season preview article, it’s clear that you want to be starting three FWs each week. With Zaneratto, Chawinga, Sanchez, and Uchenna Kanu all costing $250k or less, you can currently start three of the top seven FNWSL players for a total cost of $650k. You can also mix in an Ally Sentnor or Haley Hopkins and save even more money for the other positions.
That means the only choice you need to make, formation-wise, is whether you want to play four MFs or four DFs. Based on the first few weeks of the season, my advice is to play four DFs. Like last year, there isn’t a multitude of high-scoring MFs each week, but there is a multitude of DFs that rack up the points each week irrespective of the overall defensive performance of their team.
You can move some money from FW to the back line and invest in the premium DFs that have a lot of goalscoring upside, and if you go with four DFs from four different teams, you maximize your chance for clean sheet points each week as well. (The NWSL is so competitive and unpredictable, especially this season, so I think attempting to predict clean sheets on a weekly basis is not the best fantasy strategy for now). Consider Carson Pickett, Malia Berkely, or a DF starter on North Carolina, Utah, or San Diego.
What are your plans for Round 5, or your favorite Sherlock quote? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!
(Remember that we have another Friday evening deadline this week, as Round 5 kicks off in San Diego at 8/7c.)