It’s officially free agency season in the NWSL, so time to start planning for 2024 Fantasy NWSL! Over the next couple of months, I’ll be taking a look at some off-season questions, player transfers, and expansion moves to help prep for next year. If you have a question you’d like answered during the off-season, just comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!
What happened to the Thorns?
Portland started the season on an absolute tear, only losing two league games before the World Cup. The Thorns were scoring by far the most goals in the NWSL, and one of the biggest challenges faced by FNWSL managers was deciding how to allocate Portland roster spots among Sophia Smith, Sam Coffey, Crystal Dunn, Morgan Weaver, Meghan Klingenberg, and Hina Sugita.
After the World Cup, however, it was a different story. Sophia Smith’s injury made a significant impact, but offensive efficiency nose-dived in Portland. The Thorns scored just one league goal during the World Cup, and averaged just over one goal per game after the break. Morgan Weaver was really the only player who saw an increase in fantasy value during the second half season, and though Smith did return late in the year, the Thorns were unable to recapture their early-season form.
So what do FNWSL managers do about the Thorns next year? Crystal Dunn has already announced that she won’t be returning to Portland and many other key players are free agents as well.
There’s really no reason to suspect Sophia Smith won’t return to her pre-World Cup, MVP-level form in her contract year next season, and if so, she shouldn’t be left off FNWSL rosters. Sam Coffey will probably be the other must-have Thorn in 2024. Though she didn’t score a goal in 2023, she led the league in assists, was third in chances created – and, according to FBRef, was by one measure the most valuable player in the NWSL by a wide margin (she led the league with a plus/minus on/off of 4.79, well ahead of Tierna Davidson who was second with 2.38).
However, other than Smith and Coffey, I think we will have to wait and see how the free agency period and the draft affect the Thorns roster. We could very well see Portland return to their pre-World Cup dominance next season, but until then, I likely won’t be using all four of my Thorns roster spots in FNWSL.
Who will break out next year?
Until we have all the concrete information regarding free agent signings, expansion drafts, overseas transfers, and the exact geographical location of Orlando de Janeiro, I’m not going to get too deep into predictions for next year. However, there are a few players that I think are primed for a big 2024:
Washington talisman and everyone’s favorite World Cup break captain Ashley Hatch should see some very positive regression next year. She was tied for 3rd in the Golden Boot race with nine goals, but the key stat for her is Expected Goals. She logged by far the most xGoals in the NWSL with 13.1… in fact no other player had even eight! That means that she performed well enough to win the Golden Boot, and a few more of those Expected Goals should become real goals in 2024.
With San Diego advancing to the NWSL semifinals in only their second season, Wave assets could provide big returns next season. I’m keeping my eye on Jaedyn Shaw, who (in addition to her goal-scoring upside) has started taking lots of set pieces for the Wave – and anyone serving up corner kicks to Alex Morgan is a great option for FNWSL. Shaw’s playing time was a little inconsistent during the first half of the season, but she started every game after the month of June in both league and cup play, and logged either a goal or assist in half of those games… it should only get better next year!
The Red Stars’ rookie winger Penelope Hocking missed a month of the season due to injury but still notched five goals. With start striker Mallory Swanson set to return from injury herself in 2024, Hocking (like Shaw) should be in a great position to rack up assists from the wing in Chicago during her sophomore season. Goals + assists = fantasy all-star.