Spain vs. Switzerland
The knockout rounds of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup kick off Saturday at Eden Park in Auckland. Surprise Group A winners Switzerland square off against a Spanish side that looked to be imperious before suffering a 0-4 defeat to Japan on the final match-day in Group B. The two European nations shared a Euro 2013 qualifying group and traded victories en route to that tournament. Most recently, Spain defeated the Swiss 2-0 in a 2019 Algarve Cup placement match.
Team Tactical Updates
Spain
Analysis of Spain must naturally begin with an autopsy. How on earth were one of the tournament’s most dominant teams so thoroughly manhandled by the Japanese in their final group stage fixture? In a certain sense they weren’t. The xG between sides (Japan 0.9, Spain 0.7) remained about even. Spain retained a slight advantage (10 to 7) in terms of shots. La Roja won every statistical battle from crosses to dribbles to duel rates. In true Spanish fashion, they racked up 77 percent possession. The Nadeshiko simply caught them on the counter in every opportune instance.
Japan-Spain counted as a strange football match indeed. Manager Jorge Vilda stuck with his highly competent 4-3-3, making just one personnel change. Captain Ivana Andres had to be scratched from central defense with a calf injury. Rocio Galvez earned her 11th cap for country in the skipper’s place. Everything proceeded as smoothly as one could expect. The Spaniards remained in full control of proceedings until Jun Endo sprung Hinata Miyazawa on the counter in 12th. The 1-0 came completely against the run-of-play.
Still, Spain appeared to be in control. Vilda’s squad certainly lacked a certain forward impetus, but ball circulation and bow-arcing remained crisp. Shortly before the half-hour-mark, however, Japan netted the 2-0 on their second counter and just their second touch in the box. Riko Ueki’s goal did come courtesy of a deflection. Another counter in the 40th. Another goal on Japan’s third touch in the box. Impeccable timing on the press from Fukoshi Ikea’s team. Pinpoint passing. Clinical finishing. 3-0 to the Asians.
Vilda stuck with his system throughout, making only like-for-like substitutions. The second half played out much like the first, with the fourth Japanese goal resulting from a loose Irene Paredes mark on Mina Tanaka. It should be noted that there were narrow misses from the likes of Jenni Hermoso, Alexia Putellas, and Salma Paralluelo. Many actors in Vilda’s XI – most notably Paralleuelo, Aitana Bonmati, and Ona Batlle – also turned in well above average performances on the day.
Switzerland
Swiss trainer Inka Grings has been lining up her team in the exact same 4-3-3 since the beginning of the tournament. An injury to center back Luana Bühler pushed Noelle Maritz into central defense whilst Nadine Riesen took over at left-back in Round Two. This actually worked out to the team’s advantage as Riesen proved one of the top performers in the 0-0 draw against New Zealand that enabled the Swiss to book passage to the knockouts. The Swiss formation possesses its own counterattacking potential. Grings has been gifted her match-plan. It’s doubtful we’ll see changes.
Projected Lineups
Spain
Vilda likely wishes he had some of his self-exiled players at his disposal now. Barcelona’s Patricia Guijarro or Manchester City’s Laia Aleixandri would certainly come in handy as he seeks to figure out how to bolster the midfield. The loss of Mapi Leon in central defense truly stings now. It’s difficult to imagine the Japanese counter slicing the Spanish ranks open had she been on the pitch.
Lack of options at the center back position (or in defensive midfield for that matter) probably heralds a shift back for one of the midfielders. Teresa Abelleira makes for the most likely candidate, though Irene Guerrero could start in the 23-year-old’s place. In total, three personnel changes are projected. Esther Gonzalez reclaims her starting place over Jenni. Alba Redondo takes over for Mariona Caldentey.
Abelleira moves back to assist Laia Codina (in for Rocio) in central defense.
Lineup—Spain—Match Four (Projected) (5-2-3)
Vilda will be playing for his job in any case. The team has yet to win a tournament knockout match in his eight-year-tenure. The Spanish have faltered at this stage in both the 2017 and 2022 Euros as well as the 2019 World Cup. Given how much respect the women’s game enjoys within the country, calls for a new regime will no longer be ignored if the manager cannot get the world’s 6th-ranked country over this hump.
Switzerland
As noted above, Grings faces no real need to alter her system. Most of the components continue to improve steadily. Captain Lia Wälti’s game grows with each passing match. Coumba Sow, Seraina Pieubel, and Geraldine Reuteler also remain on the uptick. Given that the team hasn’t scored a goal in their last 180 minutes of tournament football, note that a change in attack could take place. Fabian Humm may take over for Ana-Maria Crnogorčević.
Lineup—Switzerland—Match Four (Projected) (4-3-3)
Grings might feel as if Alisha Lehmann is ready to start up top as well, though it does seem to be her preference to bring the Aston Villa striker on for some extra spark off the bench. An elimination match nevertheless means that some developing tactics aren’t worth waiting for. One expect Lehmann to appear much earlier in any case.
Key Duels and Trends
Ramona Bachmann’s counters
Since netting a goal in the opening match, the star PSG forward hasn’t managed to get her name back on the scoresheet. This isn’t for lack of trying as the 32-year-old has been swift and spry in her movements on the ball in the two goalless draws. Bachmann shall attempt to exploit the very same pockets of space the Japanese did against her upcoming opponent. One can tell that the veteran wants to press hard and influence the play. She could have a big match.
Ona Batlle vs. Nadine Riesen
Switzerland’s young fullback faces her toughest assignment yet in the form of a mega-talent just one year her senior, yet considered one of the top female footballers at her position. The movements of Spain’s fullbacks in general are worth keeping an eye on. Battle, Olga Carmona, and later sub Oihane Hernández pressed high in the previous match, but might be reticent to do so after getting caught out on the counter so much. Eseosa Aigbogun against projected starter Carmona should be an intriguing watch as well.
Early form of Bonmati and Putellas
Spain will need top-notch performances from their midfield talents in order to establish control early. Bonmati seemed a tad off early in the last match, not exactly looking her usual confident self on her first few touches. Putellas continues to exhibit some slight timing and synchronization issues on her way back from injury. Although the first few touches of a player aren’t always indicative of how they will perform throughout the course of the full 90, the writer recommends locking in on the Spanish midfield to get an early gauge of how these two work together in the opening phase.
The Tip: Spain 2, Switzerland 0
We could be in for a low-scoring affair if the two sides opt to exercise caution and play it cagey. A run to 120 minutes isn’t out of the question. Vilda’s Spain unquestionably enter as the strong favorites and one can probably assume that they’ve done enough solid prep work to right the ship. After the intensity runs out of the game, the writer will tip a 2-0 win for the Iberians. Bonmati redeems herself with a goal. One of the ESP forwards snatches a second late.