2023 Fantasy WWC: Musings on Round 1

Round 1 of the World Cup is almost complete, and I’m still jet lagged, so I figured I’d wake up at 4 am and start musing on the first several days of the ShePlays fantasy competition. It’s been a fascinating tournament so far, and I can’t wait to see what transpires in the remaining matches of Round 1. I’ll be heading back out to Eden Park here in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland to take in Italy v. Argentina tonight – where I’ll be hoping for either a clean sheet for Laura Giuliani or several goals for Mariana Larroquette. (As a neutral fan, there’s nothing like a good hedge). 

So here are some thoughts on Round 1, and some fantasy suggestions! For any regular FNWSL readers, we’re going to try a slight rebrand from “Answers” to “Musings” for the World Cup (mostly to reinforce the fact that these could all just be jet lag-induced, 4:30 am random sleep thoughts that should not be taken into consideration for fantasy or any other purpose).

What do we do about the penalty kicks?

There have been 10 penalties awarded (including retakes), including one each in the first eight (!) matches of the tournament. Only four have been converted, which has resulted in some major point totals for several GKs. In fact, both Vietnam’s Trần Thị Kim Thanh and Costa Rica’s Daniela Solera have bagged double digit point totals without logging a clean sheet! It’s difficult to predict the likelihood of future penalty save chances, but I’d keep an eye on both of these goalkeepers in Round 2, especially as they are both at $300k.

It looks like the trend of increased awarding of PKs may continue throughout the tournament, and fantasy managers should take note. A penalty can turn a bad fantasy match into a good one, and a good one into a great one, so the fantasy value of penalty takers should be massive throughout the tournament. Penalties are one of the best ways for goalscorers to find fantasy points against the flow of the game as well, so penalty takers have fantasy value that is independent of the specific opponent in that match. 

As a reminder, here are the players that have taken penalties so far. Whether they were converted or not, these players should have a very high fantasy upside moving forward:

Where are all the goals?

The expansion of the tournament from 24 teams in 2019 to 32 in 2023 raised some concerns in the women’s football community that there would be some lopsided scores in the group stage of this World Cup. However, of the twelve matches so far, only three have seen margins greater than two goals, and only one match (Japan over Zambia) has had more than three total goals. In fact, there have been five 1-0 results and two 0-0 draws. 

So what does this mean for fantasy? For one thing, it looks like many goalkeepers and defenders can be played in each round – regardless of matchup. If there is a player that you are confident in, go ahead and start them! For example, any manager who racked up clean sheet points from Rebecca Spencer or any of the Jamaica DFs got a huge differential win, as there was probably little expectation of holding France in Round 1.

It also means that you may want to consider redistributing some of your money to your back line and your goalie. If you’re like me and built your team around Sophia Smith and Marta, you may have not been able to spend that much money at DF and GK. But so far, 15 of the top 25 fantasy scores have come from DF or GK. You may want to cash in on these scores sooner rather than later.

Taking a look at the matchups in Round 2, defenders from Spain, Portugal, and Jamaica could be in line for big fantasy performances. Specifically, I’d consider Spain’s Ona Batlle ($800k) or Olga Carmona ($500k). For some lower-cost options, take a look at Portugal’s Carole Costa ($300k), or Jamaica’s Deneisha Blackwood ($200k).

What are your thoughts on Round 1? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!