Did anyone ever read the book Flatland? Basically, it’s about a two-dimensional world where all men are polygons, with those of higher socioeconomic classes having more sides (hexagons, octagons, etc.) than those in lower classes (triangles), and circles (nobility) being considered the perfect shape. Women don’t even have any sides; they are just lines. It’s pretty grim, and the book was technically supposed to be a satire on the class system in Victorian England, but someone decided it could also be used to teach students about dimensions, and so my math teacher had us read it in 5th grade or so.
The reason I bring up Flatland is that I got out to my second NWSL game of the season this week! Because it involved the only two Midwestern teams in the NWSL, Chicago and Kansas City, I’m going to call it the Flatland Rivalry. (For our players not familiar with US geography, the north-centralish region of the country is typically referred to as the Midwest, and the land is notoriously flat). The Stars held the Current for the majority of the first half, but even without Debinha, Kansas City was able to score twice before halftime, and Kayla Sharples added a third in the second half. Shea Groom pulled one back for Chicago, but the Stars did not score again. Alyssa Naeher also came off injured in the 90th minute – fingers crossed for her to be back soon!
Anyway! Remember that it’s an international window this week, so we don’t have an FNWSL deadline until June 6th. We will catch up again after the break, but in the meantime, here are few quick Answers from Round 10!
What are the team stats looking like now that everyone has played 10 league matches?
Congrats to Gotham on winning the inaugural CONCACAF W Champions Cup!
Now we are back on even footing and can make some more accurate comparisons between teams:
- Despite being 6th overall in GF, Portland actually is leading the NWSL in xG according to FBref with 18.6 (Washington and Kansas City are second and third with 17.9 and 17.8, respectively). That suggests that the Thorns offense should see some positive regression over the rest of the season, so hold on to players like Olivia Moultrie, Sam Coffey, Reilyn Turner, and Jayden Perry.
- Orlando has actually dropped down to 4th in both GF and xG, which potentially may have led to some lineup changes which I’ll get to in a second.
- San Diego is just one goal behind Kansas City (with 21), but is also all the way down in 10th in xG at 10.6. This statistic, coupled with the high level of variance in the Wave offense, makes it a somewhat risky proposition to invest too much money in San Diego attackers for FNWSL purposes.
- Lastly, while I do generally like to stay positive, I think I do need to point out that Utah is having an exceptionally rough start to the season: the Royals overall expected goal difference (xGD) is -14, which puts Utah on pace to have the worst season xGD of any team since at least 2019 (For reference, Chicago currently has the second-lowest at -6.3). The primary issue is on defense (which I attribute to the season-ending injury suffered by Tatumn Milazzo, though the injuries across Utah’s backline aren’t helping), but it is also affecting the fantasy potential of players who would normally be great options like Ally Sentnor or Mandy McGlynn. On the flip side, Utah is a very good matchup for fantasy players at all positions on other teams.
What do we do about Orlando’s new-look lineup?
If you haven’t happened to watch either of the previous two Pride matches, or just got distracted by the Barbra Banda first-half hat-trick, you may have missed that Orlando has switched to a 3-5-2 formation. Now I’m no tactical expert, but it is worth discussing this change because it’s brought some new unpredictability (i.e. the bane of FNWSL managers) into what was previously a pretty consistent and very fantasy-lucrative Orlando lineup over the last year or so: a back four of Kylie Nadaner (Strom), Kerry Abello, Emily Sams, and Cori Dyke with Banda and Marta dominating chances up front. Dyke started on the bench in Round 9 and Abello started on the bench in Round 10 (though she did come on in the 2nd half). The same goes for Marta, who started on the bench and replaced Banda in the 72nd minute. To make matters even worse, Haley McCutcheon left the game with an injury.
Considering Orlando’s prowess over the past season plus, many Pride players are very popular (with good reason) in FNWSL. However, most of them are also very expensive, and it’s risky to spend $300, $400, or even $500k on players that may not start – especially considering that Orlando hasn’t been as consistently dominant this season as they were last year. So keep your eye on availability reports, team news, and lineups leading up to the deadline – which is always good advice, but especially if you have a lot of money invested in Orlando.
What are your thoughts on Round 10? Comment or Bluesky @MansersAnswers!