Alright, we made it through the gauntlet of back-to-back double rounds! Round 9 doesn’t kick off until Friday evening when Portland brings their five game winning streak to Houston and Utah visits North Carolina, so we have a little more time to set up our teams this week.

One thing to keep in mind over the next few rounds… four teams still have a game in hand: Angel City, Gotham, Louisville, and San Diego. All four of these teams will double in Round 13 to even out the schedule again, but until then, keep in mind that the total fantasy stats aren’t necessary equal across the league.

Which premium forwards should I select?

There are simply too many elite forwards in the NWSL this season, and I’m losing sleep over it. So let’s try to answer this question once and for all.

Though she was only selected by 38% of FNWSL managers in Round 8, let’s just assume that you have Sophia Smith on your team. Let’s also assume you were like me and already feel appropriately chastened for moving her out of the captain’s spot because she only had one match, and are ready to move on and never make that mistake again. She’s leading the league in goals, expected goals, and assists, so I don’t see any reason you’d not have her on your squad. (If your reasoning is “Nick, she’s actually only in a tie for 19th in expected assists,” that’s why you can’t have nice things.)

For your other two forwards, it depends a little bit on your strategy. The safest two options are probably Temwa Chawinga ($250k) and Trinity Rodman ($350k). Both have consistently returned value for almost the entire season, and play for two of the top three attacking teams in the league (KC is leading the league in xG, and Washington is third). They are also the top two players in the league in my favorite FBRef stat, npxG+xAG – at 7.4 and 7.2 respectively, which puts them well ahead of everyone else (Smith is in third with 5.6). Rodman adds a high ceiling to her high floor, as somehow she is third overall in FNWSL points but has only scored one goal and had to sit out week one – it’s only a matter of time until she starts finding the back of the net. KC had a very difficult travel schedule over the last week, and I think we can count on the Current attack to recover this week.

If you’re looking for more high-risk/high-reward options, then go with Bia Zaneratto ($250k) and Barbra Banda ($300k). Neither player has quite the same track record as Chawinga or Rodman so far this season, and both have suffered injuries, but both are fantasy gold. They are the only two FWs in FNWSL with more fantasy points per match played than Smith, and Banda is the only player in the league with an npxG+xAG/90 min greater than 1.00. Without getting too deep into the math, that means that she is essentially the only player who you can expect to log at least one goal or assist each game. (I personally tend to play it safe in FNWSL, but if you’re more exciting than I am, you’ll probably love this combination! Keep an eye on Zaneratto injury news though).

The sheer volume of high-value forwards in FNWSL by nature limits the number of differential options – Smith had the highest TSB% among forwards in Round 8, and Chawinga, Rodman, Jaedyn Shaw, and Ally Sentnor were the only other FWs above 20%. For real differential options, there are three forwards I’d consider – the only other forwards averaging at least five fantasy points per match played: Uchenna Kanu ($150k), Lynn Williams ($500k), and Claire Emslie ($350k). Each of them were selected by 6% or fewer of FNWSL managers last week – even though they are ranked 7th through 9th in fantasy points per match played among forwards.

Williams appears to be finding her stride with a couple of goals in the last few weeks as she returns from injury, but I’d like to see more out of Gotham’s attack before committing $500k. Emslie hasn’t quite been dominating the Angel City attack the way she was earlier in the season, so I’d go with Kanu among these three options. Other than Sentnor, she is by far the least expensive of the high-profile forwards, and can fit into your team very well if you are spending lots of money at MF or DF.

Are clean sheets back?

Well probably not until I do my laundry on Thursday – but after me pontificating for weeks about the lamentable lack of clean sheets this season, SEVEN occurred in Round 8. I still think that predicting clean sheets on a week-to-week basis is nigh-on impossible in the NWSL, we probably have a large enough sample size to at least analyze where and when they are most likely.

Orlando and Gotham have conceded the fewest goals this season (six), with Louisville and San Diego right behind at seven. The Wave are actually 10th in xG conceded, with KC taking their place in the top four of that statistic. Translation: teams are able to get higher quality chances against San Diego, but San Diego isn’t conceding those chances. Kansas City, on the other hand, aren’t letting opponents get as many high quality looks at goal.

In terms of actual clean sheets, each team has at least one this season. Orlando (all by Anna Moorhouse) is leading with four, and Houston, Gotham, San Diego, and North Carolina each have three.

So if you are on the #QuestForCleanSheets, I’d say there are two and a half teams to focus on: Orlando, Gotham, and North Carolina if the Courage are playing at home (Carolina has only conceded once in four home games, but aren’t quite as effective away from Cary). Gotham is especially interesting, as Ann-Katrin Berger’s move to starting GK coincides with the restructuring that saw Sam Hiatt and Emily Sonnett slot in as the starting center back pairing (Sonnett is a MF this season in FNWSL). The decision appears to be working out very well – they’ve only conceded twice in the trio’s four starts. For this week specifically, I’d consider North Carolina at home against Utah and Orlando at Seattle, as both opponents have scored just six goals on the year.

What are your plans for Round 9? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!