Congratulations to the Orlando Pride for winning the 2024 NWSL Shield! This is the first trophy for the Pride, and they locked it up with three matches to go!
(Speaking of Orlando, to everyone in Central Florida dealing with Hurricane Milton – please stay safe! We’re thinking of you!)
The Pride’s victory also means that the NWSL playoff picture is starting to get a little clearer. With the new playoff format this year, eight teams will qualify with the top four playing at home in the first round. No teams will receive byes, so there will be three full rounds of matches in the postseason.
Read more on the Road to the 2024 NWSL Playoffs here.
Remember that the NWSL playoffs do not count for FNWSL, so, with three regular season rounds remaining, we’ve entered what I consider the unofficial FNWSL playoffs! Today, let’s look at the table and the various scenarios still in play for the eight NWSL playoff spots, and consider whether this can help us make decisions for our FNWSL teams.
Round 23 kicks off late on Friday with Portland hosting the Shield winners at 10e/9c/8m/7p, followed by three games on Saturday and three on Sunday.
How does the Shield impact FNWSL considerations for Orlando?
Orlando’s securing of the Shield last weekend also means that the Pride have clinched the #1 overall seed in the NWSL playoffs. Orlando will want to stay hot going into the playoffs, and is still on track to complete the first undefeated season in NWSL history, so I wouldn’t guess that there will be wholesale changes to the starting XI.
That being said, with three full matches to go before the playoffs begin, it is likely that some players will see fewer minutes – especially the attackers. If you have players like Barbra Banda, Marta, or Adriana, you may need to lower expectations (fantasy-wise) for the rest of the season. You don’t necessarily need to transfer any of them out, but I probably wouldn’t captain them over the final few weeks.
What about teams in the second tier of the standings?
The second tier of teams includes Washington, Gotham, and Kansas City, who are in a battle for second place and only separated by a point. The new structure of the NWSL playoffs means that the first and second-place teams no longer get byes in the first round. It also means that these three teams will almost surely all get home matches in that first round, so it may appear that there isn’t much to play for over the last three weeks.
However, there is technically a chance that any of these three teams could fall into fifth place before the regular season concludes. Also, second place looks way better than fourth on the final table, and I’d guess all three of these teams will continue to play their best XIs for at least the next couple of weeks.
Washington management has shared recently that they don’t intend to play any injured players in the rest of the regular season who aren’t able to fully participate in practices, but little information has been made public about the injuries the squad is currently facing. We’d say the best XI is a healthy XI, but something to keep in mind nonetheless given their growing list of injured players.
And the third tier?
The third tier includes North Carolina and Chicago, who are both smack in the middle of the playoff spots on the table. The Courage have officially clinched a playoff spot and are all but locked into fifth place (see above), so North Carolina is probably the only other team that could potentially rest some players starting this week. For example, I could see Brianna Pinto getting a little more time to recover from her leg injury, and NC sticking with the 4-3-3 they used last week against the Wave.
The Red Stars, however, theoretically could still finish anywhere from fifth to ninth, so expect Chicago to be playing at full strength this weekend. As a treat, their final few regular season matches will potentially serve as quarterfinal previews. The Red Stars will face every team in the second tier, playing Gotham and Kansas City at home with an away trip to Washington in the middle. (If you have an extra $200k lying around in your fantasy budget, or perhaps need a replacement FW, Ludmila has now scored in three consecutive matches!)
Which teams are fighting for the final playoff spots?
It appears (though it’s not guaranteed) that the final spots in the playoffs will be filled by two of Portland, Bay, and Louisville. There is still a wide range of outcomes for these teams and everything to play for, so fantasy decisions can be made as normal!
What about the other teams?
Only Houston has been officially eliminated, so all four remaining teams (San Diego, Angel City, Utah, and Seattle) are still in contention and should also be playing their best XIs. One note, though – the Royals got an immediate boost from the return of Ally Sentnor and have won their last two games, so keep an eye on Utah.
What are your thoughts on the final three rounds of the season? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!