Well, since you can count the number of rounds remaining on one hand, I’m going to go ahead and declare it: we are officially in the home stretch of 2024 Fantasy NWSL! Each team has five remaining league games before the regular season concludes on Sunday, November 3rd.
San Diego, Gotham, and Portland are also playing in the CONCACAF W Champions Cup (with two additional group stage matches before the end of the league season), while Gotham and Kansas City will contest the final of the Summer Cup between Rounds 24 and 25. None of these matches will count for FNWSL purposes, but it’s probably worth keeping in mind that players from these teams will see some extra minutes before the end of the season.
Over the next two weeks, we are going to take a look at the remaining league schedules for each NWSL team, and see if that can help us plan our fantasy lineups for the run-in. At this point in the season, we have a significant amount of data regarding each team’s overall offensive and defensive performance, and today, were are going to look specifically at which teams have the best potential schedule for scoring goals based on their remaining opponents.
Also, remember that since there is only a single Friday game this week, and it’s on the west coast, we have a late deadline for Round 21 – which is ideal, considering all of the injuries that many of our favorite FNWSL players are dealing with. Washington and Angel City kick off at 10e/9c/8m/7p, giving everyone a little extra time to set their lineups.
Which teams have the most favorable remaining schedules for goal scoring?
To determine which NWSL teams may score the most goals over their final five matches, we’re going to use the Expected Goals Allowed data from FBRef, and get a total for each team’s remaining schedule. The higher total xGA of opponents = potentially more chances to score goals. This can be especially helpful if you’re looking for the best differential options to the FNWSL forwards at the very top of the leaderboard! This table shows the total xGA for each team’s remaining opponents in their home games, away games, and overall.
First, a couple of disclaimers:
- This data does take into account home vs. away performance and is calculated based on whether the opponent is the home team or the away team.
- We know how competitive and unpredictable the NWSL is, especially after all of the summer transfers (which do impact expectations in the second half of the season!). This xGA data is calculated on a season-long basis, so it doesn’t necessarily fully account for recent team changes and could be affected by some primacy bias.
Or, in graphical form:
Four teams really stand out: Utah, Washington, Portland, and San Diego. Theoretically, these four teams should have the most favorable schedule for scoring goals through the rest of the season, and therefore should have the best chance to rack up fantasy points.
So what does this mean for FNWSL?
- We talked about two attackers on the Spirit last week, Ashley Hatch and Leicy Santos, and this data really underscores their fantasy potential for the run-in. With Croix Bethune out for the season, Ouleymata Sarr dealing with a back injury, and all signs pointing to Trinity Rodman needing some rest with a flareup of a past injury during last week’s match, Hatch and Santos should see significant playing time against a favorable schedule.
- We also mentioned the differential value of Ally Sentnor last week, and she should be returning from the U-20 Women’s World Cup shortly, bronze medal in hand. She will likely get additional rest time, but she should figure prominently in the Royals attack for the final four rounds or so.
- Sophia Smith is also dealing with an injury, which makes the Thorns offense a little hard to predict. Olivia Moultrie is probably the best attacking option from Portland for fantasy purposes, especially because she’s a midfielder, but Morgan Weaver came back in a big way on Monday – scoring in her first start since April 27th. Keep an eye on any availability reports this week before making any fantasy decisions about the Thorns.
- The Wave are adjusting to life after Alex Morgan, and were somehow held scoreless by Chicago despite an xG of 3.3 last Saturday evening. At only $150k, Amirah Ali may be the highest upside option: 0.9 xG in a total of 104 minutes over the last two matches. That being said, it appears that Jaedyn Shaw is recovering from her injury and may return to the starting lineup this weekend, in which case she’s probably your best bet from San Diego. Just like for Portland, keep an eye on availability reports this week!
Are you changing your attacking strategy for the run-in? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!