Well, I had my lowest-scoring round in FNWSL history in Round 2, so I think it’s only fair if we start with the season’s third disclaimer so you can make an educated decision as to whether you’d like to keep reading this week.
The third disclaimer: Nick only scored 40 points in Round 2.
There were definitely some extenuating circumstances last weekend, with Hailie Mace being a late addition to the injury report and Alex Loera sitting out for reasons that are as yet unclear. Add in low scores for Sophia Smith, Alex Morgan, and Jaedyn Shaw, as well as the lingering injuries to Lynn Williams and Rose Lavelle, and I’m sure many FNWSL managers shared my pain this week.
So instead of focusing on the bad news in FNWSL this week, let’s focus on the good news!
Which team has the most good news on offense?
One of the most important storylines of the first two rounds has been the North Carolina offense, which we could refer to more poetically as a Courageous attack. The Courage have scored 6 goals in the first two matches, and have an expected goals against (xGA) of around 3 in both. The Round 1 fantasy point outburst from Bianca St. Georges and Haley Hopkins is likely not sustainable, but we can’t overlook the FNWSL potential in North Carolina. This is especially important if you’re looking to balance out spending after some slow starts among the premium players, and to commit a little more money to the MF and DF positions.
Ashley Sanchez ($250k) and Malia Berkely ($200k) are the standout options here. Sanchez has played 179 minutes, scored a goal, and is leading the team in expected Assists. Other than the imitable Carson Pickett, and a trio of Red Stars (more on them below), Berkely is the highest-scoring DF in FNWSL – even though she hasn’t scored a single Defensive or Clean Sheet point! I mentioned last week that she’s also involved in PKs for the Courage (high ceiling), and her involvement in the offense gives her a high floor even if NC’s defense struggles.
Which team has the most good news on defense?
Another somewhat unexpected storyline through the first two weeks is the 2-0-0 start for the Red Stars – especially considering that Mallory Swanson has yet to find the back of the net. After conceding more than two goals per game last season, Chicago’s only conceded once so far in 2024. From a fantasy perspective, there are even more surprises: three Red Star currently appear in the top 10 fantasy scorers of the season, all three are DFs, and none of them are 2022 fantasy superstar and this reporter’s favorite player, Tatumn Milazzo.
There are a few layers to this story.
After a flurry of off-season acquisitions, it appears that Chicago has settled into an entirely new back four (could we call it a constellation?) of Taylor Malham, Sam Staab, Natalia Kuikka, and Maximiliane Rall, and Kuikka’s move to center back leaves Milazzo as the odd one out. Though they’ve only given up one goal, the Red Stars’ total xGA is actually over three, so a significant portion of the credit for Chicago’s defensive success has to go to goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher (currently the most selected GK in FNWSL by a wide margin).
We may see Chicago DF fantasy scores dip a little as the season goes on, or xGA decrease as this new defensive constellation gets comfortable working as a unit.
Either way, Staab is leading the team in corners, free kicks, and crosses, so her fantasy value should remain high regardless of where scores settle for the Chicago defense overall. If you’re looking for a high-upside option who still has (closer to) guaranteed week-to-week minutes, Taylor Malham ($75k) is the way to go. And, if you’re in my position of needing a $200k replacement for Milazzo, it should be Malia Berkely.
Which player has the most good news?
UPDATE: Sophia Smith just re-signed with Portland on a contract that makes her both the highest-paid player in real NWSL and FNWSL – talk about good news!
Sophia Smith was captained by 20% of FNWSL managers in Round 2, and no other player was above 6%. For the time being, I don’t see a reason to change that, as Smith came very close to a third goal in two games and is still the most reliable goal scorer in the league. If you’re looking for a differential captain this week, take a look at the Kansas City-Angel City game. These two teams are currently 2nd and 3rd in xG for the season, so players like Claire Emslie, Vanessa DiBernardo, and Lo’eau LaBonta could definitely rack up the points this weekend.
What adjustments are you making for Round 3? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!