Since it’s the first Monday Night American/association Football crossover evening of the season, it’s time for a special Monday edition of Manser’s Answers! You may have noticed that fantasy point totals started to update before the end of the round this week – thank you so much to the awesome and hardworking team at ShePlays (especially those who know way more coding than I do).
Last week, we talked about differential captains. For those of us who were stymied by scoreless games from Orlando, Kansas City, and Portland in Round 19, it’s probably time to think even more seriously about some differential choices in FNWSL. Let’s dive in!
Here were the most selected players in Round 19, along with their Teams Selected By (TSB) percentages:
- Sophia Smith: 38.1%
- Naomi Girma: 37.0%
- Temwa Chawinga: 34.5%
- Barbra Banda: 29.5%
- Trinity Rodman: 29.3%
Only four other players were selected by more than 25% of FNWSL managers: Taylor Flint, Alyssa Naeher, Croix Bethune, and Jenna Nighswonger.
As you may expect, this list is dominated by the four elite forwards of the 2024 season, and you likely have three of those four elite forwards on your roster. Since so many other FNWSL managers do too, that means that a differential FW selection is probably the quickest way to shake up your team for the run-in.
You could play the matchup game and try to rotate among these four depending on their weekly opponents (e.g. Rodman was the only one of the four to score in Round 19, which was an ideal outcome for anyone who captained her), but if you really want to go differential, you’ll probably have to transfer one of them out. So…
Who should I select for a differential forward?
The good news is that finding a differential selection at forward is relatively simple. Other than the aforementioned quartet, the next most selected FWs were Jaedyn Shaw at 22.5% and Mallory Swanson at 16.8%, and no other FWs were above 15%. We mentioned last week that Adriana (2.3%) could be an ideal choice. She logged 42 touches and 3 shots in the somewhat surprisingly scoreless draw against Kansas City, but really any of the other high-scoring fantasy FWs should be good differential options. For the final few weeks of the season, I especially like Ally Sentnor, who will hopefully be returning from the U-20 Women’s World Cup in Round 21 or 22, and Ouleymata Sarr, who is out with a back injury and will hopefully be returning shortly.
However, in the meantime, if you do want to go a little deeper with your team and really shake things up, here are my top recommendations for FWs currently rostered by fewer than 5% of FNWSL managers, with their Round 19 TSB in parentheses. All you have to do is remember the three H’s!
- Ashley Hatch (4.25%): Hatch has returned to the Spirit XI in a big way over the last two games, logging an assist in Round 18 and two goals in Round 19 – one of those goals being a penalty kick. If you happen to remember, I mentioned that she was one of the prime candidates for positive regression this season, and with the injuries in Washington, she’s getting her chance! At $300k, she could be an equal transfer for Banda.
- Jordyn Huitema (3.6%): The Reign carry a three-match win streak into their game with Gotham tonight, and the attack has looked much more efficient since the transfer deadline. There has been quite a bit of variety across the Seattle front line across those three matches, but Huitema has gotten the most consistent minutes. At $300k, she could also be an equal transfer for Banda (or of course a replacement for Smith or Rodman). Keep an eye on Huitema tonight, as she’s listed as Questionable with illness.
- Haley Hopkins (2.1%): Since the Olympic break, Hopkins has locked down a spot at the top of the Carolina attack. She’s a consistent starter on a good team and won’t severely impact your salary cap at $100k – which could be very helpful if you’re trying to add a differential player at forward and move some money into other positions!
Who should I select for a differential midfielder?
The TSB distribution is quite a bit higher at midfield, with the top four midfielders (excluding Croix Bethune) stretching from Taylor Flint at 27.1% through Vanessa DiBernardo and Lo’eau LaBonta to Olivia Moultrie at 17.5%. That means that you’ll have to go a little deeper to find a true differential option at MF, so let’s stick with the 5% rule:
- Leicy Santos (3.9%): Santos won’t be differential for long, so I’d recommend getting her in your lineup now. She didn’t get a full 90 last week, as Washington built up a big lead early, but look for her to continue to rack up fantasy points through the end of the season.
- Narumi Miura (3.9%): Miura has the distinction of being the highest-scoring FNWSL midfielder (in both total points and attacking points) that has not logged a goal contribution this season. She has to get an assist or goal one of these weeks, right? But even if she doesn’t, she consistently racks up the defensive points, sitting fourth amongst midfielders in this metric after Round 18.
Who should I select for a differential defender?
The defender TSB landscape is a little more similar to the situation at FW. After Girma, Nighswonger and Sarah Gorden were the only players above 20% in Round 19, and only three additional DFs (excluding Sofia Huerta, who has departed Seattle on loan to Lyon) were above 15%: Casey Krueger, Tara McKeown, and Carson Pickett.
That means that almost any other DF could be a differential option, but I think that there are two standouts:
- Cori Dyke (0.6%): We weren’t exactly sure what the Orlando back four would look like with the addition of Pickett, but what we do know is that Dyke has started the last four games at right back, and they’ve all been clean sheets for the Pride. Furthermore, rookies have a minimal impact to your fantasy salary cap at $75k – so if you want one representative from the elite Orlando defense, she’s by far the most cost-effective!
- Kate Del Fava (3.9%): Of the outfield players that have logged all 1800 minutes so far this season, Del Fava ($175k) is the least expensive in FNWSL. Also, she’s the only one of those players other than Kaleigh Kurtz who has scored a goal, and Del Fava has two. Among defenders, she trails only Madison Curry in total defensive points. The point is, she’s about as close as you can get to a low-risk, high-reward player in FNWSL. She’s the same fantasy price as Sarah Gorden, so she could be an ideal differential transfer for her.
Who should I select for a differential goalkeeper?
Trying to be differential at GK can be a little tricky, but since I haven’t talked about goalies much this year, let’s take a swing at it. Really anyone other than Alyssa Naeher (27.0%) or Kailen Sheridan (21.0%) could qualify. Considering Orlando’s overall defensive prowess, Anna Moorhouse (9.0%) is probably the best option, but if you’re out of Pride slots on your team, I’d recommend Ann-Katrin Berger (13.2%).
Are you going differential this week? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!
Thoughts on Jane Campbell as differential GK pick?
Interesting idea! Houston hasn’t logged a clean sheet since June, and the next two matches are against an improving Reign team and then Orlando, so it’s looking unlikely that they wouldn’t concede in those two games. That being said, Houston does allow a lot of shots, which gives Campbell a chance to rack up the goalkeeping points. Personally, considering the FNWSL GK landscape overall, and the fact that Campbell is actually the sixth-most owned GK at around 13%, I’d probably go with a keeper that has a little more clean sheet upside.
What are your thoughts on having Mackenzie Arnold as a differential keeper option, especially with regards to overall points return, bearing in mind that my team has Aubrey Kingsbury as a starting GK already in addition to three of the four elite forwards?
I like it! I probably wouldn’t start Arnold every week, but most of Portland’s remaining games are against teams in the bottom half of GF this season: Angel City (2x), Utah, and San Diego. Also, Arnold’s TSB is still under 1% so it would be a pretty significant differential.