Well, it’s almost time for FNWSL summer vacation! This is the final round of NWSL league play before the Olympics break. Though several NWSL teams will be playing in cups and tournaments during July and August, Round 16 of league (and FNWSL) play won’t kick off until Friday, August 23rd.
Remember that many NWSL players will be participating in the Olympics. We do know that USWNT players will be available this weekend, but several players from other nations may not be. Keep an eye on availability reports and ShePlays posts for the latest updates leading into Round 15 – also, ShePlays will be providing great Olympics content all tournament long!
In the meantime, let’s take a look at some data that can help your FNWSL team, both in Round 15 and for the rest of the season, specifically…
Which NWSL teams have the most concentrated defenses?
As suggested by Roshan after last week’s article on the concentration of offense in the NWSL, let’s see if we can analyze the concentration of defenses across the league. Defense in FNWSL is inherently less concentrated than offense, since a large percentage of fantasy points for DFs (and GKs) come from team clean sheets, not individual goals or assists. Also, many DFs score a lot of fantasy points through individual defensive actions like tackles and clearances. These tend to be unpredictable week-to-week and aren’t necessarily based on overall team strategy or lineups.
However – there is some good news! Set pieces are another way that DFs can score fantasy points, and they are far more predictable because set piece strategy is (mostly) independent of a team’s weekly matchup. This chart shows the total number of corner kicks and free kicks taken so far this season by each NWSL team, along with the two DFs that have taken the most and the corresponding percentage of their teams’ total. It’s in descending order of percentage taken by the one DF:
It’s not surprising that the top three are Sam Staab, Carson Pickett, and Izzy Rodriguez – three of the most valuable DFs in FNWSL this season. Pickett and Rodriguez are especially valuable, as they take a high percentage of set pieces on teams that take a lot of set pieces. It’s also worth noting that there’s a pretty significant drop-off in total set pieces between the top two defenders on four teams: Chicago, Louisville, Kansas City, and Gotham. So, if you’re looking to bring in a defender from any of those teams for a given week’s matchup, you can maximize your potential fantasy score by choosing Staab, Pickett, Rodriguez, or Jenna Nighswonger.
This data also helps highlight why so many North Carolina defenders (four) appear in the top 20 FNWSL DFs. The Courage rely on DFs for over 65% of total free kicks and corner kicks, which, when coupled with North Carolina’s above average team defense, makes the Courage DFs ideal options for your fantasy team. (Seattle also relies heavily on DFs for set pieces, though because the Reign have conceded much more often, Seattle DFs haven’t scored quite as many fantasy points).
In fact, there is a significant correlation between the entire list and the list of top-scoring DFs across FNWSL this season… 18 of the top 25 FNWSL DFs appear on this list! So, if you’re debating on which defender(s) to bring in during a given week, take a look at the set piece data.
What’s your strategy for selecting DFs in FNWSL? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!