Well, it was an interesting double round! A lot of FNWSL managers (including me) transferred in/captained players with two matches, only to see this week’s scoring dominated by the usual suspects: Banda, Smith, Rodman, Swanson, Chawinga, etc. Two very popular Round 13 selections, Yazmeen Ryan and Taylor Flint, faced some unfortunate circumstances in their second matches, with a red card and injury respectively. Ryan will miss Round 14, and we’re sending good vibes to Flint (we should get an update early this week).

The good news is that we are back to normal this week in FNWSL, with all teams playing once. That means we can rein in our collective overthinking (at least for the time being), and we can also finally analyze FNWSL data evenly across the board now that each team has played the same number of games. Specifically, we can finally take a look at one of my favorite FNWSL team-based stats…

Which NWSL teams have the most concentrated offense?

Just to clarify, I think all NWSL players are concentrating during the games. In this case, I’m talking about concentration in more of a chemistry sense – for example, the number of sodium ions in a specific volume of water, or how much Kool-Aid you poured into one pitcher. In FNWSL terms, it means determining which NWSL teams get the highest amount of their total offensive production from the lowest number of players (and therefore which players offer the most predictable path to fantasy points).

At a high level, players on teams that consistently score a lot have a better chance to rack up the two most valuable assets in FNWSL: goals and assists. They have high ceilings for fantasy points week-to-week. Players who are consistently relied upon to score goals or create chances for their teams have high floors because they will get lots of opportunities every single game. Players that do both? They’re exactly who you want to have on your fantasy team.

So this week, we’re going to take a look at which teams rely on certain players the most, and how that can help you with your fantasy team. To do this, let’s take each team’s leader in total goals+assists through the first 13 rounds, and determine what percentage of their team’s total G+A that that player has logged this season (sorted in this table from highest to lowest). Then, we will also take a look at how that number compares to the second highest total on the team:

So what does this tell us about FWs?

First off, the list really illustrates the fantasy value of both Banda and Smith: players that dominate their teams’ attack (at least from a fantasy points perspective) on two of the league’s most potent attacking sides. The Current and Spirit also have very potent offenses, but both are significantly less concentrated (especially in Kansas City, where 18 different players have logged at least one goal or assist so far this season). Also, it showcases Ally Sentnor’s importance to the Royals – she accounts for more of her team’s goals+assists than any player but Banda. Unfortunately, considering Utah’s struggles this season, it’s tough to justify starting her every week, but she is a very safe and low-cost candidate for your fourth FW.

That all being said, it’s very easy (and by no means a bad idea) to simply look at this list and lock Chawinga, Banda, and Smith into your front line. However, depending on your strategy, there are some other options to consider. I think Banda and Smith should be starting on your team every week, but there are arguments for some other strategies for the third FW spot as we move into the back half of the season.

Mallory Swanson appears to have fully recovered from last season’s injury, and over the last few weeks has been showcasing perhaps the most individual shot-creating ability this side of Sophia Smith. Chicago is firmly in the upper tier of offensive performance in the NWSL, and Swanson is almost always either in the center of the attack or creating her own shots – she’s accounted for twice the goals+assists of Penelope Hocking, who’s in second place on the Red Stars. The Chicago attack, though it doesn’t score as much as the top four teams, is much more concentrated around Swanson as compared to the level to which say, Kansas City’s attack is concentrated around Chawinga, or Washington’s is around Rodman. So, if you want a really high-upside differential option, Swanson’s TSB has been around 15% all season.

The other two names that jump out are Claire Emslie and Bethany Balcer. Though neither of their teams have racked up the goals this year, both are the primary members of attacking partnerships that do a large percentage of the offensive work on their respective teams: Emslie with Alyssa Thompson for Angel City, and Balcer with Ji So-yun in Seattle. Though they may not have as much upside as some other FWs, if you’re looking for a player that is almost always going to get lots of minutes and rack up opportunities, these are the two I would start with.

What does this tell us about MFs?

To stick with the chemistry theme, this data also really crystallizes the value of Croix Bethune and Vanessa DiBernardo, as they can both rack up offensive stats for your fantasy team without taking up one of your all-important FW slots. Bethune is absolutely must-have, and fingers crossed that DiBernardo can return soon.

Another takeaway is that teams that rely the most on midfielders for offense tend to have the least concentrated and most unpredictable attacks, like Bay or Louisville. In fact, after Bethune, you have to go all the way down to to Ji So-yun to find another MF on this list. Therefore, it may be a good idea to not chase goals and assists directly when selecting your midfielders. Rather, I’d stock up on MFs from the high-performing offenses so you at least have a high weekly upside – players like Claire Hutton, Sam Coffey, and Summer Yates. (And don’t forget Taylor Flint, who has scored an absurd number of defensive points so far this season).

Any thoughts or questions for Round 14? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!