USA vs. Portugal
Though few have dared to envision the worst-case-scenario just yet, the conclusion of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup’s Group E on Tuesday could potentially see the two-time-defending World Champion USWNT eliminated from the current competition. While such a possibility remains remote, the discourse surrounding the U.S. squad in most sporting publications take on the tone of a firmly-pressed panic button.
As we noted in the last ShePlays piece covering this team, the two main reasons for this relate to the increased expectations surrounding the team as well as the normal journalistic drive to fuel hyperbole. Much of the criticism leveled at specific players is so subjectively inconsistent that one wonders how the same match could be viewed so radically different.
There does nevertheless appear to be wholesale agreement with regard to head-coach Vlatko Andonovski’s tactics. Many call for the man tasked with leading the USWNT through their present generational transition to employ radical personnel changes following the 1-1 draw with the Netherlands. Others desire a shift in the shape. Our analysis forecasts something more surgical.
Vlatko may wield a scalpel.
USA
The word most commonly used to describe the USA’s last group-stage game is “physical”. In point of fact, the sheer number of hard tackles employed by both sides in an intense first-half has even kick-started a whole new discussion about how much rougher the women’s game has become. The seeds for this were initially planted when a pre-tournament friendly between Ireland and Colombia was abandoned due to reports of players going too dangerously into the duels.
Several other matches in the opening rounds further advanced this talking point. The second round even concluded with an affair – Colombia’s upset of Germany – counted as one of the most pronounced slugfests any of us have ever seen in the sport. Most now agree that something has shifted. In one context, it relates to how an expanded field of teams are better preparing to disrupt the basic play of favored sides; something that actually counts as a welcome leveler in the game.
Tactically speaking, Andries Jonker modified his 3-1-4-2 from the opening group stage win against Portugal into a 4-4-2 diamond with both wingers drawn back and Jackie Gronen operating as a bolt-lock-sweeper. This change matched up well against Andonovski’s “double pivot”, clogging the midfield and frustrating the U.S. attack. There’s that point. On a more attitudinal level, the Oranje came out against the U.S. girls rough, tough, and intimidating. One could see this in most every fight for loose ball. That really disrupted the USWNT game.
As to the reason why Andonovski only employed the one substitution and kept his shape in place, there existed plenty of evidence that the team were able to restore themselves during a much-improved second-half. Virtually everyone on the pitch got back into the flow after shaking off the shock. Naturally, it all came a little too late to net that all-important winner. One can still likely expect that it will carry over to the next match. American female footballers remain built for tournaments. They understand fully when to conserve and when to pull from the reserves.
The upcoming opponents, covered below, don’t lend themselves to an easy scout. Attempting to predict what Portuguese trainer Francisco Neto has up his sleeve proves too difficult. Hence, it seems likely that the Stars and Stripes will line up in the same fashion with some minor alterations. The extreme likelihood that this will be another physical affair means that the midfield ordering remains the most important. Two personnel changes, a re-ordering of the midfield pivot, and a tightening of the shape should do the trick.
Lineup—USA—Match Three (Projected) (4-3-3)
Horan moves central to run a straight pivot in a much tighter midfield. The team can expect another physical encounter from an underdog side here. It’s thus vitally important for the captain to lead the charge for tilt-balls from a centralized position and keep her colleagues within close ear-shot. The fact that the overall shape appeared so wide so early in the tournament earned plaudits last time. Such ambition needs to be tampered down now in the interest of securing the right result.
Lynn Williams replaces Trinity Rodman whilst Alex Morgan retains her faux-nine role and Sophia Smith keeps her place. Those two didn’t connect anywhere near as well against Holland as they did in the opener, but the sheer potential of that partnership overrides any real concern about its long-term viability. At this point, Andonovski must risk giving Rose Lavelle the start in midfield. Should there be any concern about fitness or injury re-aggravation, the talismanic midfielder can be subbed off at the half. The writer would keep her as close to Horan as possible.
While some wish to see Julie Ertz moved back up to a six-slot, it doesn’t appear necessary at this time. The central defensive duo functions exceedingly well. As for what to do with the fullbacks, it remains the case that the forward presence of both Crystal Dunn and Emily Fox are needed if the midfield axes is to be grouped closer together. Dunn recovered from her early error to settle in just fine. Whether to start Fox proved a tough call as Kelley O’Hara’s experience could be useful. In the final analysis, the author doesn’t know if O’Hara is fully fit and Fox’s drive is probably needed.
One should expect yet another encounter that will be tagged with the “physical” label. The team sometimes colloquially referred to as “Sam’s Angels” will have their fair share of gritty work to do before being able to flash the more technical side of their game. The fact that this tournament features some more intense play isn’t anything to lament at all. True, refereeing judgements need to be adjusted accordingly. Matters have been too lenient. The passion with which these actors currently play is nevertheless something to be celebrated and enjoyed.
There shall be plenty more of that before we’re through.
Portugal
Onto manager Neto’s aforementioned unpredictability. Those of us who turned in for the scout here certainly didn’t expect to watch an entirely different team in action. The Portuguese trainer retained only four players from his initial XI. Seven new introductions, including a new keeper, began the match. Only Jessica Silva, Ana Borges, Carole Costa, and Tatiana Pinto retained their starting places.
It also appeared as if Neto’s 4-4-2 diamond morphed into a 5-3-2 stretch. This may have been to accommodate the incorporation of Kika Nazareth, though the writer also freely admits that he could have scouted the initial match falsely. Such misreads do happen. Know that there’s not much of a chance that Nazareth has been misread. She’s insanely good.
Lineup—Portugal—Match Two (5-3-2)
Nazareth ran the attack brilliantly, playing a role in the first goal before netting the second. One genuinely felt that the first half could have ended with As Navegadoras up four or five goals rather than the 2-0 that served as the match’s final scoreline. New additions Joana Marchao, Telma Encarnação, and Andreia Jacinto slotted in pretty much seamlessly.
The combos remained bright and beautiful throughout. Only the crossbar and a couple of scuffs from Jessica Silva kept the scoreline low. Priority one for Andonovic and staff must be contained projected starter Nazareth. She’s at the beating heart of it. As to which other marks to prepare for, it looks to be a complete toss up here.
Best to simply pack the midfield and focus on execution.