Spain vs. Sweden
Just four teams remain as the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup heads towards a fabulous finish. Japan’s elimination at the hands of Sweden in the quarterfinals means that, no matter what, a new nation will be crowned Women’s World Champions for the very first time. Sweden and England are the only two team who have made it this far before. Spain had never even won a WWC knockout-round match prior to this year. The Aussies never got past the quarters.
The Semi-finals get started with what promises to a very enticing affair between two of the three European sides remaining. Jorge Vilda’s Spain square off against Peter Gustavssson’s Sweden on Tuesday at Eden Park in Auckland. The Swedish Blaugults possess the far more experienced tournament side, but the Iberians have demonstrated far greater explosive potential. The Scandinavians enter the fixture as light favorites. Whether or not ABBA’s “Mama Mia” will blare through the Eden Park loudspeakers remains to be seen.
Team Tactical Updates
Spain
Vilda’s La Roja Femenina fully deserved to book their ticket to the semis with a thoroughly dominant performance against the Dutch. Even though the Iberians required 120 minutes to advance via a one-goal-margin, the xG stats (over a 3:1 ratio) clearly revealed who the better team was. The Spanish manager made just one change to the XI that bested Switzerland in the Round-of-16. Contrary to this author’s prediction, Vilda ended up leaving Alexia Putellas on the bench again. Mariona Caldentey took the place of Salma Paralluelo on the left-hand-side of the attacking trident.
The formation remained the same.
Lineup—Spain—Match Five (4-3-3)
Esther Gonzalez and Jenni Hermoso were generating chances before one could really begin to settle in. Poor Alba Redondo ended up hitting the post twice in the 17th. Both the Spanish attack and possession game were relentless. The Dutch back-three could neither soak up the pressure nor adequately break up play, though there were a couple of decent Holland counter-charges. After a first-half that also featured more close calls from Redondo, Caldentey, and even Ona Batlle – in addition to a narrowly disallowed offside goal – the Leuwinnen could count themselves lucky that the game was scoreless at the break.
The second 45 was equally as lively, not to mention exceptionally dramatic. Spain had the game well at hand and were seriously turning the screws with more caches from Gonzalez. Vilda introduced Paralluelo for Redondo in the 71st and the Barça winger immediately began slicing through the Dutch defense. VAR correctly revoked a penalty awarded to Holland shortly after the hour-mark. Caldentey was finally gifted a chance to give the Spaniards a well-earned lead from the spot nine minutes from the end of normal time.
Ten minutes after Caldentey converted the 1-0, however, the retiring Stephanie van de Gragt came through for her country one last time with the equalizer at 90+1. Some script as it was van de Gragt who had conceded the handball penalty just minutes prior. The two sides traded chances during extra time in a full-throttle affair that simply refused to slow down until Paralluelo scored the 2-1 after a breathtaking solo-run in the 111th. The 2023 WWC cup quarterfinals couldn’t have gotten off to a better start.
Paralluelo suitably claimed “Women-of-the-match” honors and absolutely must be considered a sure-fire starter for the next round. Such a lovely story that this country that has done so much for the women’s game can now celebrate its first two wins in a Women’s World Cup knockout stage. Plenty of grounds for optimism that – following this accomplishment – they can go further still. The next opponent nevertheless poses a problem. The Swedes surprised most of us by dismantling Japan with some tight tactics.
Peter Gerharsson will have surely done his homework again.
Sweden
As predicted, Gerhardsson made no changes to either his previous XI or his usual tactical constellation. The author still holds that it mostly functions as a 3-4-3 in attack, though it does also resemble a 4-2-3-1 off the ball. Solid defensive work from Jonna Andersson and Nathalie Bjørn truly aided the Blaugults in pulling off the upset. Johanna Rytting Kaneryd and Kosvare Asllani also got involved deep to help smother the vicious Japanese counter. Major props to those two attackers on the day.
One felt bad for the Nadeshiko after the full-time whistle. A furious attempt to overcome a two-goal deficit in the final half-hour nearly led to the match going to extra time. Swedish keeper Zećira Mušović again foiled the plans of a favored side that simply couldn’t find a way past her. Admittedly, Mušović had a little help from the goal-frame and a poor Riko Ueki penalty take. Sympathy for Japan is tempered somewhat by the fact that they didn’t adequately prepare for Sweden’s clear advantage on set-pieces. The opening Swedish goal came from none other than star performer Amanda Ilestedt off a corner.
One discounts this resurgent Scandinavian powerhouse at one’s own peril, but the writer does wish to emphasize that it wasn’t the prettiest win. What proved the game-winning goal came off a handball penalty. Moreover, Gerhardsson nearly played the match away with his later game substitutions. Japanese trainer Futoshi Ikeda played the better hand with three staggered subs in the second half. The Swedes had great difficulty keeping their shape following the introduction of Madelen Janogy and Lina Hurtig in the 73rd.
Projected Lineups
Spain
Is there a need for Vilda to tinker? As noted above, Paralluelo should definitely feature in the next XI. Right-back Oihane Hernández also picked up her second yellow, meaning that (and this time the author really means it) Ona Batlle must return to the right. Vilda apparently doesn’t quite have the confidence to return Olga Carmona to her position, though she largely did fine in the latter stages of the last match. Squad captain Ivan Andres is once again available after logging some minutes as a sub in the extra time period.
How shall we build the Spanish defense? Despite the fact that Laia Codina has done remarkably well filling in over the last two matches, there were far too many instances in which Lineth Beerensteyn slipped in behind the Spanish line in the last match. Andres thus reclaims her starting place. Batlle switches right and Carmona gets another chance. The midfield remains the same despite the fact that Vilda will have to keep an eye out for Elin Rubensson’s continued sharp form. The 30-year-old once again turned in a beast of a performance.
Lineup—Spain—Match Six (Projected) (4-3-3)
If Vilda overthinks too much, he could be in trouble.
Sweden
There are reports that Asllani and Fridolina Rolfø – the two players taken off first by Gerhardsson in the Japan match – are carrying slight knocks. Asllani remains far too an important a player to sacrifice, so one should expect her to get the go. Rølfo has cooled significantly since scoring in the first two group stage fixtures, not looking quite herself after being rested during the Argentina tie. It’s entirely possible that Sofia Jakobsson or Olivia Schough could start in her place. The author considers this unlikely.
With everyone having done their bit to get the job done in the most recent win, Gerhardsson has no real reason to change anything. One assumes that the same lineup shall remain in place. A 3-4-3 or 4-2-3-1? It honestly doesn’t matter as it works quite effectively. Rytting Kaneryd and Magdalena Eriksson sometimes seem to roam about in any which way they choose. That’s isn’t meant to be a pejorative slight either. The two unsung heroes of this team have every right to do so.
Lineup—Sweden—Match Six (Projected) (3-4-3)
As we were.
Key Duels and Trends
Rubensson and Angedahl on the press
The midfield tandem played an enormous role in throwing Japan’s possession game off early. One of the most intriguing questions entering the last tie received a resounding answer within the opening minutes. The two forward-stationed pressing machines beat direct opponents Fuka Nagano and Yui Hasegawa back with proactive challenges. The Japanese wingbacks too had trouble advancing against them. After two consecutive strong matches, it shall prove most interesting to see if these too can keep it up. They could also spurn some early counters against the pockets of space in the Spanish midfield.
Spain’s upfield triangles
If there is one glaring weak point for Vilda’s side, it’s that most of the attack charges up both flanks felt way too geometrically predictable. This component of Spanish football naturally retains its advantages, not least a crisp short-field passing game that renders “tiki-taka” aesthetically (and hypnotically) pleasing. The Swedes will nevertheless have put in the legwork an attempt to disrupt this early. Not only is the Spanish game foreseeable, it also seems to be slowing up a bit as the tournament progresses. The Blaugults know what’s coming and may have an answer for it.
The Spanish back-four
Two projected new starters must kept it disciplined at the back if they are to snuff out the Swedish sorties. Vilda’s girls did have trouble handling rapidly developing Dutch counters later on. Even when it was obvious enough that Beerensteyn was hanging next to the line looking to break, the Spanish defensive chain never once managed to catch her offside. Given the unpredictability of frontal rotations on the top two axes of Gustavsson’s team, it’s vitally important that the back line move forward as a unit whenever someone is lurking. Early trouble could come if they don’t.
The Tip: Spain 1, Sweden 1
As much as one would like to see Ilestedt score yet again off a dead-ball, Sweden don’t possess the same height advantage as they did against their previous opponents. This game will probably decided in open-play. The writer confesses that he maintains something of a hunch about the Scandinavians. They are clicking at an opportune time and can readily take advantage of a more inconsistent side. In the final analysis, things seem so evenly balanced that a hard-fought draw looks a likely bet. Back to the penalty lottery if female football fans can still stand it.