Japan vs. Sweden
The nation considered to be the best and most consistent team thus far in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup gets a chance to exact revenge on the team that eliminated them from the women’s Olympic tournament two years ago. The unstoppable “Nadeshiko” of Japan take on female footballing powerhouse Sweden in the second of Friday’s quarterfinal kickoffs. The Japanese seek to advance in their quest for a second star.
Sweden were able to take Japan out 3-1 in the Olympic quarterfinals in the summer of 2021. Interestingly enough, it was the Japanese who bested the Swedes in the 2011 WWC quarterfinals by the same scoreline en route to the title. While the Europeans – ranked third in the world – might be considered slight favorites on paper, all who have watched Japan perform in this tournament will back the Asians.
A highly intriguing Women’s World Cup rolls on. FIFA’s two top-ranked teams globally (USA and Germany) have already been eliminated. The #3 Blaugults face an incredibly stern test in the the second knockout round of the competition. Numbers four (England) and five (France) can conceivably also be knocked out before the quarters are through.
Team Tactical Updates
Japan
Fukoshi Ikeda has not tinkered at all with the 3-4-3 deployed in the tournament’s opening match. That isn’t to say that there haven’t been wild changes on the personnel front. The Japanese gaffer rotated four of his outfielders out in the second group-stage game against Costa Rica and made five changes ahead of the critical final third group fixture against Spain. The 3-1 win over Norway in the Round-of-16 featured three changes. Whew. Ikeda simply maintains a hot hand. It seems he can do no wrong at the moment.
The absurd stats associated with the dismantling of Spain left most tournament watchers convinced that Japan are genuinely the best team in this competition. We saw little in the latest match to dispel such a notion. The Nadeshiko front three hit Norway’s lines hard early, eventually forcing an own-goal out of Ingrid Syrstad Engen at the quarter-of-an-hour mark. Although Guro Reiten equalized against the run-of-play shortly thereafter, the Asians methodically turned the screws until they forced another mistake out of the Norwegian back line after the restart.
The Norwegians rallied in search of another equalizer late on, but it genuinely appeared only a matter of time until the deadly Japanese counter would strike against the Scandinavian possession game. A lightning-quick sequence of passes up the middle enabled Hinata Miyazawa to net the 3-1 capper nine minutes from the end of normal time. This team remains an exceptionally difficult squad to crack. Their game works both on and off the ball. An ultra protective Norwegian 5-4-1 proved wholly insufficient.
Ikeda’s wingbacks effectively render the Japanese attack a front-five. Marking all the potential sources of danger makes for an extremely difficult assignment and mistakes are bound to happen. The author confesses that – even though Sweden themselves run an effective back-three – he can’t really offer up much of a solution against the Japanese charge. He will try his level-best to build something promising in the section below. At least the next Scandinavian opponent to face the mighty Nadeshiko can take solace in the fact that their strong set-pieces afford them a chance.
Sweden
The Blaugults arrive in the next elimination stage surely combating some mental and physical fatigue following the draining dramatic penalty shoot-out win over the USA. Whether or not this proves a factor in tournament football naturally always comes down to the strength of the conditioning program employed by the coaching regime. It’s fair to assume that an experienced manager such as Peter Gerhardsson has his girls on the level, meaning that this may be immaterial in the end.
It’s nevertheless worth noting that we did witness Sweden wilt in their final two fixtures at last Summer’s Euros. The narrow 1-0 win over Belgium in the quarters was widely regarded to have been one of the worst technical and tactical performances from the program in years. It came as no surprise to watch the English split the Swedes wide-open 4-0 in the semis. The performance against the USA in the P.S.O. victory reminded one of the Belgium game in many respects. This squad must improve.
Projected Lineups
Japan
Off we go with an attempt to anticipate Ikeda’s “hot-hand” play this time. Note that the tournament’s current leading goalscorer – Miyzawa – has only started three of four fixtures. Mina Tanaka has also only started three, as has Jun Endo. Riko Ueki featured in the starting blocks once. Aoba Fujino, Fuka Nagano, Risa Shimizu, Honoka Hayashi, and Hikaru Naomoto have all been taking turns. Little choice here but to employ some, as educated as possible, guesswork.
Lineup—Japan—Match Five (Projected) (3-4-3)
Three personnel changes see Hina Sugita, Hikaru Naomoto, and Miyabi Moriba start in place of Hana Takahashi, Fuka Nagano, and Jun Endo. Slightly more experience is employed at three positions against a team playing a similar formation in order to gain a slight edge in straight positional duels. Additionally. the new midfielder and center back help the Nadeshiko out with slightly better height advantage in the box.
Things might get gritty. As a result, we might see one of the Japanese actors issued their first actual yellow card of the entire tournament. There one has a very interesting point. The 2011 Champions lead this competition both in terms of overall form and in the fair play category. They are the best in more ways than one.
Sweden
In stark contrast to previous tournaments, Gerhardsson clearly knows his preferred XI. The formation also largely works well and there appears little reason to tinker with it. The Swedish trainer has his own talents available in the wingback slots. Jonna Andersson and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd shouldn’t be swapped out despite some noticeable form dips. As much as Lina Hurtig and Sofia Jakobsson made strong cases for themselves off the bench in the last match, it doesn’t quite feel right to displace Fridolina Rolfö, Stina Blackstenius, or Kosovare Asllani.
The writer expects all to remain as it was.
Lineup—Sweden—Match Five (Projected) (3-4-3)
Note that other publications are labelling The Swedish shape a 4-2-3-1 based on how high Rytting Kaneryd presses. To this particular set of eyes, the versatile Chelsea professional is synchronizing her movements with Andersson and the back trio of Magdalena Ericksson, Amanda Ilestedt always seem to fold back into the inverted pivot shape whilst in possession. This shape makes more sense, including and most especially against the upcoming opponent.
Key Duels and Trends
Every Swedish set-piece design
Long-time FrauenBundesliga fan favorite Ilestedt bagged a brace in the 5-0 rout of Italy in Round Two thanks to two well-designed dead-ball plays. Illesedt also headed home the winner late in the Round One victory over South Africa. Gerhardsson hasn’t really been showcasing the playbook in the last two fixtures. To be fair, the Swedes only earned five corners against Argentina and three against the States. Expect there to be some well-drilled variants in this one. The Swedish trainer knows full well that they’re his best shot.
Press positioning of Angedahl and Rubensson
It might be the case that two of the better Swedish performers in this tournament receive orders to stand down in this one. Gerhardsson must take some precautionary measures against the Japanese counter. These two support attackers may drop all the way back into defensive midfield in order to contain the venomous charges the Nadeshiko are known to unleash. Sweden’s ability to cope with this trend in general early shall surely be indicative of whether we can expect a competitive match in general.
Aoba Fujino in general
After first discovering the 19-year-old live-wire in the opening match, the author concedes that he simply cannot take his eyes off this teenage talent. She’s impresses with her intelligent forward lane cuts whenever Tanaka drops deep and has played a huge role in drawing coverage to free up Miyazawa. Difficult to fathom that this speedy little linchpin has only collected one goal and one assist on the four scoresheets. Her work remains far more valuable than that. Viewers are cordially invited to treat themselves to a track of #15.
The Tip: Japan 2, Sweden 1
Another lopsided win remains a possibility, a close game seems reasonable enough. It’s actually never easy to predict how the Scandinavian women’s footballing powerhouse will perform deep into tournaments. Gerhardsson has a knack for always taking them to the last-four, but they’ve faltered late in the last three major competitions. One set-piece goal for the Europeans. Two tallies from open play for the Asians. A result that ends up feeling fair.