Australia vs. England
In a match absolutely worthy of a Final, two Anglo-Nations prepare to do battle in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup semis on Wednesday. Co-hosts Australia seek to upset the reigning European Champions in the largest capacity venue in the competition. Tony Gustavsson’s Waltzing Matildas – coming off an emotional PSO win against France in the quarters – hope to emerge winners against the Three Lionesses for the second time in four months.
The two countries just met in an April friendly. Aussie Talisman Sam Kerr netted one goal and set up another en route to helping her team sink England 2-0 at Brentford. The result constituted the first defeat for England since last summers Euros. Kerr has thus far been sidelined by a calf-injury in this competition, but is projected to earn her first start of the tourney in this match. So many intriguing storylines. How shall it unfold?
Team Tactical Updates
Australia
Trainer Gustavsson unsurprisingly made no personnel changes to the XI that bested Denmark in the previous round. The Aussie gaffer nevertheless did employ a massive tactical shift. The aggressive 4-2-1-3 that debuted against the Danes was rearranged into a 4-4-2. The reason for this was – to utilize what the writer thinks is an Anglo expression also used down under – “bleeding obvious”. Sam Kerr required a straight placeholder. Hence, we saw Emily van Egmond line up alongside Mary Fowler on the top axis.
Lineup—Australia—Match Five (4-4-2)
Even before we get to one the craziest penalty shoot-outs of all time, the latest performance of the tournament co-hosts isn’t a match that lends itself to a straightforward explanation. Goodness, what a crazy affair this was! This neutral writer felt the heart palpitations as momentum rippled back and forth across the pitch for a full 120 minutes plus. Scarcely believable that we got a 0-0 scoreline at the end.
Fowler missed no fewer than three attempts at an empty net. Substitute Cortnee Vine – the eventual hero of the shoot-out – fluffed a great chance in extra time. At the other end, Selma Bacha, Kadidiatou Diani, and Grace Geyoro came oh-so-close on numerous occasions. An apparent own-goal from Alanna Kennedy was also disallowed due to a push in the back from Wendie Renard. The sheer madness of the PSO shall remain etched in the memory of female football enthusiasts forever.
Aussie keeper Mackenzie Arnold missing her own effort from the spot, then later saving against Kenza Dali twice (!!) from her own line? Seven nerve-wracking rounds in which the Matildas overcame misses from Arnold, their ordinarily reliable captain Steph Catley, and Clare Hunt? Tony Gustavsson’s tears and emotional salute to his team during his post-match-interview? Some of the most incredible WWC scenes ever. It all really happened. The brain shall retain it all in the frontal lobes.
Insofar as the lessons we can glean from this result, it’s fair to say that the Matilda-stars who have previously earned such consistent praise largely experienced “off-days” here. Hayley Raso and Caitlin Foord let their presence be known on a couple of occasions, but remained far from the dominant forces observed in the first four matches. One of the writer’s personal faves – Katrina Gorry – also had multiple sloppy moments on the ball. In her second relief shift of the tournament, Sam Kerr didn’t get a shot-on-goal in 65 minutes of action.
The 4-4-2 clearly subdued Foord and Raso. Plugging Kerr into van Egmond’s slot accomplished little as the attack continued to stall. Gorry found herself rescued on multiple occasions by midfield partner Kyra Cooney-Cross. The Aussies eked their way through to the semis with probably their weakest performance of the competition. Naturally, that’s totally irrelevant moving forward. All of the mentioned actors should return to form. Some tactical tweaking can also get everyone rolling again.
England
Keira Walsh’s injury in the second group stage match against Denmark forced a rare tactical re-think out of manager Sarina Wiegman. In the next fixture against China, Wiegman dropped her famous “six-seven-eight step-stone” constellation and lined the Lionesses up in a 3-5-2. The second incarnation of this – in the Round-of-16 encounter against Nigeria – looked to function more regularly as a 3-4-1-2. It definitely looked like a 3-4-1-2 in the quarterfinal tie against Colombia; in which Wiegman had to do without suspended star performer Lauren James but did surprisingly get Keira Walsh back.
Lineup—England—Match Five (3-4-1-2)
England’s struggle to get out of first-gear in the first half didn’t count as a surprise at all. The Colombians immediately impressed those of us following this tournament closely from the start. Backed by their raucous fans, the ability of Las Cafeteras to turn some early upsets seemed obvious. Moreover, ahead of the England fixture, the manner in which Nelson Abadia’s team were set up tactically threatened the existing English tactical system. The Colombian 4-2-3-1 relied heavily on outward diagonal balls that could easily bypass the advanced English wingbacks.
The South Americans steadily fought their way into the game until they took a 1-0 lead that, while coming on their first shot-on-goal, didn’t feel out-of-place with the flow of the match at all. The Lionesses were only able to snatch an equalizer shortly before the break via a goalkeeping error from Catalina Perez. Wiegman’s squad performed better in the second 45 and restored the lead in a manner befitting of their hard-work. Things nevertheless got nervy again towards the end as the Colombians continued to penetrate the English half. Better finishing quality would have yielded a different result.
This most certainly qualified as a narrow escape for the defending European Champions. The fixture also neatly fell into the “ultra-physical” descriptor long-time female football fans are now using to describe how different the women’s game feels at this particular tournament. Everyone should definitely keep close tabs on the injury reports in the English camp. Virtually every player took some heavy knocks. Bruises shall swell. Joints shall ache. Muscle tears might only be discovered at the next training session. This was a brutish affair to say the least.
The lineup projection below carries with it many assumptions.
Projected Lineups
Australia
Will Samantha Kerr start? Gustavsson made it clear in his pressers leading up to the last match that his star will make the XI so long as she’s fit. While the legend definitely displayed some more signs of rust in her latest relief shift, she didn’t appear to be hindered by injury in any way. The writer believes that Kerr shall get the go. He’ll also wager safe money on Gustavsson getting his tactics right. In the author’s opinion at least, the solution is staring him right in the face.
A modified 4-4-2 can carry the day.
Lineup—Australia—Match Six (Projected) (4-4-2)
Caitlin Foord’s ruthlessness on the ball in this competition renders it all clear. The 28-year-old is practically begging to be used as a centralized “service striker” at this point. Foord should serve as the focal point inside the 18 with Raso and Vine utilizing extra space on the flanks. Gorry and Cooney-Cross hang back a bit to absorb midfield pressure whilst the agile and clever fullbacks work over-and-underlaps as needed. It all clicks together almost perfectly. The Aussie trainer could have hardly wished for a better state-of-affairs.
England
Acting on the supposition that everyone is passed fit, this piece projects some tactical shifts from manager Wiegman. A few things need to be tweaked both in the interest of the team itself and better matchups against the upcoming opponent. For starters, it didn’t quite look as if Keira Walsh and Georgia Stanway looked entirely comfortable sharing a tight horizontal axial change. Stanway clearly wanted to move forward more often. Walsh’s regular game suffered during attempts to advance along with her.
In the interest of restoring the highly effective “split-stagger” of this pairing, a return to a 4-2-3-1 should be in the offing. Rachel Daly’s recent issues with defending and turnovers also illustrate the need to shore up an otherwise stellar defense. The author thus advocates swinging Alex Greenwood out to left-back and reinstating Chloe Kelly to the starting XI. The midfield “step-stone” returns to the clear benefit of Walsh, Stanway, and the somewhat lost-as-a-straight anchoring-midfielder Ella Toone.
What distinguishes this 4-2-3-1 from the one used at the beginning of the tournament is that Kelly and Lauren Hemp operate much closer together on a clear top axis. The double-striker set of Hemp and Alessia Russo has yielded great dividends in the last three matches and must be preserved in some form. We turn the 4-2-3-1 in a 4-2-1-3 fully capable of standing toe-to-toe with the Australian forward trident. Midfield link-up-play functions as it was intended to at the beginning of the tourney.
Lineup—England—Match Six (Projected) (4-2-1-3)
Back to basics.
Key Duels and Trends
England strikers in the half-spaces
The primary reason why the striker tandem of Russo and Hemp has worked so well in the last three fixtures relates to some smart movements from the duo inside the box. Russo in particular has been very adroit at drifting into the right pockets of space in the box, scoring from both the half-left and half-right. Without getting too nerdish about the importance of half-spaces, the writer just wishes to note that hitting those pockets after intelligent touches is what separates average forwards from exceptional ones. Both Russo and Hemp have done well in this regard thus far their maneuvers are worth a look.
Sam Kerr’s first few touches
Will the superstar replicate her smooth performance from the 2-0 win over England last April or try to do too much? The 29-year-old finds herself in a unique situation. Ordinarily expected to carry the team, she’s now tasked with integrating her game into an already gelling tournament side. The new Kerr – perhaps conditioned to be more unselfish after her 2019 tournament – attempted to pass too many times in her latest relief shift. Tenuous and less-than-confident decisions led to her passing rate falling below 50 percent. Keep an eye on how she handles early chances here.
Millie Bright and Alanna Kennedy
Two central defenders on the respective sides are headed in total opposite form directions. Bright overcame a shaky start to become one of the competition’s most commanding forces, particularly in the air. Kennedy’s tournament, by contrast, has been one seriously mercurial ride. The 28-year-old swung between major gaffes and body-breaking heroics against France, not unlike she did in the second group stage fixture against Nigeria. Whew. Both these defenders shall have a busy afternoon. One false touch from either can end up deciding matters.
The Tip: Australia 3, England 1
We’re going to go for the sensation here after another exciting end-to-end encounter. The potential of the dueling tactical constellations could conceivably produce a match that yields roughly even xG. The latest form of the respective keepers nevertheless leads to a result in which the scoreline doesn’t reflect even chances. Mackenzie Arnold rides her momentum while Mary Earns (looking somewhat weak on a Colombian goal last round) lets a few in during in-crashing flurries in front of her net. Preemptive congratulations to the co-hosts on reaching the Final.