The group stage is complete – and unfortunately so is my trip to Aotearoa New Zealand. Big thank you to Marran and all the Kiwis I met across the North Island – you all couldn’t have been friendlier and I can’t wait to return (maybe in the summer next time). I’m doing a brief stop in Hawaii on the way home, so the flight wasn’t quite as long this time, but still gave me plenty of time to muse on the final round of group stage matches. Hope this helps prepare you for the knockout stages!
Is it time to go all-in on Japan?
I made the mistake of thinking that Japan’s early results may have been partially due to their competition, but their 4-0 dismantling of Spain to run away with Group C has made me a believer. Japan may be the most talented team in this World Cup.
Japan had four of the top 25 fantasy players in the group stage. Hinata Miyazawa, Mina Tanaka, Riko Ueki, and Moeka Minami. Notably, none of these players cost more than $600k. Miyazawa and Tanaka have been the two most consistent fantasy performers so far, and both are worthy transfers for the knockout stages. If you only have room for one, I’d go with Tanaka considering her ability to provide fantasy value through both goals and assists.
I am a little nervous about Japan’s path through the knockout stages – Norway appears to be peaking at the right time after recovering from the loss to New Zealand, and neither Sweden nor the USA will be an easy opponent in the quarterfinals. Therefore, it may not be wise to go all in on the Japenese just yet, but overlook Nadeshiko Japan at your own peril!
Which R16 team has the most fantasy upside?
Now that the World Cup has entered the single-elimination phase, it becomes even more important to spend your fantasy budget on players that are likely to stick around for multiple rounds. We’ve seen that it’s pretty much impossible to predict anything in this tournament (e.g. two-time champions Germany exiting in the group stage for the first time in WWC history, and the USA squeaking through by a literal inch), so trying to project the knockout stages may be a fool’s errand.
That being said, you do want to consider which teams have a higher likelihood of playing multiple games and perhaps reaching the final. Personally, I like England. The Lionesses appear to have righted the ship after a rocky start (as we discussed last week) with a methodical 6-1 victory over China to win Group D. Perhaps more importantly, the road ahead looks a little easier on the bottom half of the bracket than it does on the top. England has an R16 matchup with Nigeria, and the winner will meet the winner of Colombia/Jamaica in the quarterfinals. England should be favored in both matches, and would also likely be the favorite against any of the potential semifinal opponents (Australia, Denmark, France, and Morocco).
Lauren James, fresh off logging a brace against the Steel Roses, may be the best option here (only $700k), but any of the England starters should be good picks for the knockout stages.
Who should you captain in the Round of 16?
Entering Round 1, the top three captains selected in ShePlays Fantasy WWC (by a relatively wide margin) were Sam Kerr, Sophia Smith, and Mary Earps. Well behind that trio was a second group, consisting of Alex Morgan, Katie McCabe, Alexia Putellas, and Alexandra Popp.
Kerr has yet to see the pitch, and both McCabe and Popp have exited the competition. Smith cashed in against Vietnam in Round 1 but hasn’t logged many points since. Putellas and Morgan have both notched one assist but no goals. Earps was close to a third clean sheet against China, but is currently the 5th highest-scoring GK.
I’m not sure any of these players are the best captain options in the R16, though as in most tournaments of this format, we will likely see some lower-scoring games in the knockout stages so I wouldn’t blame you for sticking with Earps against Nigeria. DFs and GKs should be safer choices for the armband from here on out, or players that aren’t exclusively dependent on goals for fantasy production. Considering the R16 matchups, Alex Greenwood, Jill Roord, or Mina Tanaka would be my choices. Amanda Illestedt could be a good differential option, as it’s very difficult to predict what will transpire in the Sweden-USA match.
What are your thoughts on Round 3? Comment or tweet @MansersAnswers!